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Today we continue our Presidential Geography series, a one-by-one examination of the peculiarities that drive the politics in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Today’s stop: New Jersey,polo femme,ralph lauren pas cher Osama Bin Laden Joins the U., the Garden State. FiveThirtyEight spoke with , the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, and , a professor of political science at Rutgers University and director of the university’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

Optimistic Republicans might be forgiven for daydreaming about turning New Jersey into a red state and getting its 14 electoral votes. For the past 20 years, the state has been reliably Democratic in presidential elections,polo ralph lauren, yet it has a number of characteristics that would suggest at least an openness to favoring Republicans.

New Jersey has a fairly popular Republican governor, . Its Congressional delegation is evenly split,polo ralph lauren, with six Democrats and six Republicans. Moreover, New Jersey is the fourth most affluent state in the nation, with a of $63,540. New Jersey voters also come overwhelmingly from Republican-friendly territory: the suburbs. In 2008, 88 percent of New Jersey voters said they lived in suburban communities, according to .

And it was not long ago that New Jersey was a reliably Republican state in presidential elections. Republican presidential candidates carried it from 1968 to 1988, overperforming their national popular vote in every election.

But, although the Republican Party in New Jersey is somewhat stronger than in other Northeastern states, the dynamics shaping the state’s politics are more likely to continue moving the state to the left.

States often shift politically for two main reasons: migrants and immigrants change the demographic makeup of the state, or a change in policy causes a rift between a party and its voters.

In New Jersey, both have occurred, and both have benefited Democrats. First, New Jersey became more ethnically diverse, and minority groups that favor Democrats have become a larger and larger share of the vote. And second, as cultural,polo ralph lauren polo ralph lauren Would Obama’s payroll t, rather than fiscal issues increasingly defined the national Republican Party, moderate Republicans and independents in New Jersey left the party in elections for national offices.

The second trend is why miles and miles of New Jersey suburbs have translated into underwhelming Republican support. New Jersey Republicanism is exemplified by well-educated, wealthy and most of all, socially moderate voters, Mr. Redlawsk and Mr. Murray said.

In North Jersey, traders, lawyers and other professionals who work on Wall Street commute there from the affluent suburban and exurban communities in Morris and Somerset Counties. North Jersey also has several large pharmaceutical companies, including Johnson & Johnson,louis vuitton sito ufficiale, Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb. The white-collar conservatives,ralph lauren femme,polo homme, many of them registered independents, who work in these and other industries have shied away from national Republican candidates.

“The Republican Party’s veer to the right on social issues over the last couple decades has turned off a lot of moderate voters in New Jersey,” Mr. Murray said.

There is a pocket of traditional cultural conservatives in the northwestern corner of the state,polo homme, which is mountainous and more sparsely populated (the scenery and culture in the northwest seem a continent apart from the industrial landscapes that flash by on the New Jersey Turnpike). In Warren and Sussex Counties,polo lacoste, the socially strident,polo homme,polo ralph lauren pas cher, Tea Party brand of Republicanism is more popular than in the suburbs, Mr. Murray said.

The Democratic strongholds in New Jersey are based in the state’s cities. At a slight slant, following the from the northeast near New York City to the southwest near Philadelphia,ralph lauren, New Jersey’s most urbanized areas form the core of the Democratic Party’s support in the state. This continuum from Jersey City,polo femme, Newark and Elizabeth, to the university town of Princeton, to Trenton and Camden traverses the main cultural divide in the state, between the north and south.

The north is more ethnically diverse. About was born in a foreign country. New Jersey is African-American, Hispanic and Asian,ralph lauren femme,ralph lauren pas cher, the third-highest share of Asian-Americans in the nation.

Northern Jersey land of Giants and Yankee fans is home to more urban Democrats, and is culturally in New York City’s sphere of influence. In southwest Jersey, Eagles and Phillies fans predominate, and suburban Democrats watch Philadelphia television.

Democrats in the southwest are also a little more conservative than Democrats in the north. In New Jersey’s , the counties surrounding Camden Gloucester, Atlantic,polo, Burlington and Salem from favoring Jon S. Corzine, a Democrat, in 2005 to voting him out of office in 2009.

The timing of New Jersey’s gubernatorial vote it does not coincide with either Congressional midterm or presidential elections tends to mean turnout is lower, which favors Republicans, Mr. Murray said. Demographic groups that more , affluent, elderly and white voters, also skew more Republican than the general population. Thus,polo ralph lauren polo ralph lauren pas cher India’s centra, heavily Republican areas in New Jersey, like Monmouth County and fast-growing Ocean County along the Jersey Shore, make up a greater share of the electorate in gubernatorial elections,polo lacoste,borse gucci prezzi Can my woodworking shop compete, helping to elect Mr. Christie,polo ralph lauren pas cher, a Republican, in such a blue state.

The Bellwether: Atlantic County

In the past three presidential elections, Atlantic County has been an almost perfect predictor for the statewide vote in New Jersey. Democrats are more numerous in the East Coast’s version of Las Vegas, Atlantic City. But outside the city, there is a sizable Republican presence in retirement communities along the shore and the somewhat rural towns inland. In 2012, Atlantic County may provide an early hint of the final margin in New Jersey.

The Bottom Line

President Obama is still in New Jersey, and the FiveThirtyEight model currently gives Mr. Romney just a 7 percent chance of carrying the state. If Mr. Romney does better than Senator John McCain did in 2008 among the many New Jersey residents who work in the financial services industry, it could make the state a little more competitive than it was four years ago. Wall Street support for Mr. Obama has since 2008.

But the overall lack of appeal generated in New Jersey by Mr. Romney, who was elected governor of more liberal Massachusetts, illustrates why Republican candidates will have a difficult time wresting New Jersey back from Democrats.

“Romney, as governor of Massachusetts, could have also succeeded here in New Jersey,polo ralph lauren, because he would have appealed to New Jersey voters,” Mr. Murray said, “But when Republican nominees veer to the right on social issues in order to win the nomination, that can come back to bite you in a place like New Jersey.”

Mr. Romney could tap Mr. Christie to be his vice president,polo femme, but even that would not make a significant difference in how the state votes, Mr. Redlawsk said.

“At the national level, New Jersey is reliably Democratic, and I don’t see a whole lot happening to change that,” Mr. Redlawsk said, “If anything,louis vuitton borse END PRO-LIFE HYPOCRISY: PROMOTE PRO-LIFE CONTRACEPTION,polo femme Floyd Norris - Economix Blog - NYTimes., it might go the other way if the Republican Party continues this rightward surge.”

1: New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District seat was left vacant when Representative Donald M. Payne,polo lacoste, a Democrat, in March.

2: The financial crash devastated New Jersey’s tax base, partly because so many residents work in the financial services industry.

Welcome to ,polo homme,louis vuitton sito ufficiale CASEY B. MULLIGAN - E,ralph lauren femme, The New York Times’ first-ever country-specific site for news,ralph lauren pas cher,polo femme, information,polo femme, culture and conversation.

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GoDaddy recently surprised Madison Avenue by hiring an advertising agency to develop a more professional image for the company,chanel, which became notorious for commercials, created internally,polo ralph lauren, that featured scantily clad “GoDaddy Girls” and double entendres. A commercial that is the first work for the client from the agency,chanel occhiali, Deutsch New York, suggests that GoDaddy is trying to grow up in a hurry.

The commercial for GoDaddy,ralph lauren, which registers Internet domain names and is a Web hosting provider, is to start running during the coverage of the Summer Olympics. The spot includes a barely dressed woman,ralph lauren outlet,ralph lauren, but she is treated in a tongue-in-cheek manner. “Behold Charlene,borse gucci prezzi Corrections - The New York Time,ralph lauren pas cher,” intones an announcer. “Charlene is how GoDaddy attracts domain name customers.”

The nymph is joined by an awkward-looking GoDaddy technical employee. “But there is also Carl,polo lacoste pas cher,” the announcer declares. “Carl is how GoDaddy keeps customers.”

“GoDaddy.com,” the announcer concludes. “Charlene on the outside,chanel ralph lauren pas cher Jamie Dimon and JPMor,ralph lauren femme Noam Cohen - Media Decoder Blog, Carl on the inside.”

The commercial “captures what we wanted to do really well,polo ralph lauren pas cher,ralph lauren pas cher,” said Warren Adelman,polo lacoste,polo ralph lauren, the new chief executive at GoDaddy,polo ralph lauren, whose decision it was to end the era of what the founder, Bob Parsons,polo ralph lauren, called “GoDaddy-esque” ads.

“We wanted to acknowledge our past,” Mr. Adelman said,polo homme polo femme Obama budget sets up e,ralph lauren femme,free of charge, and “not walk away from” it, but also begin to talk more about “products and services” and “who we are.”

Greg DiNoto,borse gucci, chief creative officer at Deutsch New York,polo ralph lauren pas cher,ralph lauren pas cher HIDDEN LOSSES, said: “The sexy side of GoDaddy has had a purpose,polo lacoste pas cher,ralph lauren femme, to get attention. We wink at that and use it to open a door to another side of GoDaddy, as a reliable tech company, that consumers need to know about.”

As for fans of the “GoDaddy-esque” approach,ralph lauren pas cher, Mr. DiNoto said, “consumers appreciate brands that don’t walk away from where they’ve been.” Mr. Adelman put it this way: “We hope they have a really good sense of humor; they’ve demonstrated that in the past.”

Occasionally in the coming weeks and months,borse chanel prezzi,polo femme, The Agenda will introduce you to small-business owners who are wrestling with how to provide health insurance to their employees. Over time, we hope to delve into all aspects of a crucial decision not just managing the costs but sorting out benefit packages, weighing alternatives,polo femme, and dealing with insurers and brokers. Along the way, we hope to get a better understanding of how the 2010 health-care legislation will, or won’t,ralph lauren, affect small businesses.

Today we meet Ann Gish,ralph lauren pas cher, who designs high-end bed linens from offices in Manhattan. As we proceed with this series, we’d like to hear from you. What questions would you like us to ask of the business owners we profile? Do you have an interesting health insurance story to tell? Please .

THE OWNER Ann Gish,ralph lauren outlet, 63.

THE COMPANY designs and distributes luxury bed and table linens and pillows, which are sold at Bergdorf Goodman, NeimanMarcus.com and boutiques nationwide. In 2011, the company in Manhattan. Excluding Ms. Gish and her husband,polo ralph lauren pas cher, Ann Gish Inc. employs 10 people in the United States.

WHAT THE COMPANY PAYS The company bears the entire premium cost for its workforce,ralph lauren pas cher,polo ralph lauren pas cher,polo ralph lauren, $472 a month per employee. It?provides individual coverage only, but Ms. Gish said that most of her employees are either unmarried or have spouses who get insurance through their jobs. One sales manager,chanel,ralph lauren GOLF - On Par Blog - NYTimes.com,polo homme polo ralph lauren pas cher Revealed How Twitter, however,polo ralph lauren polo homme Matter’s vision for long-form, has a self-employed husband with a pre-existing condition and a child. Ms. Gish pays the employee’s premiums, and the employee pays the insurance for the rest of her family an additional $1,300 a month. “She used her agent, we used our agent, and this was the best we could do,” Ms. Gish said. “If she could find a better deal, we’d give her the $500.” Ms. Gish said she is giving serious thought to reducing the share of employee premiums that her company pays: “I want to see what happens business-wise over the next year, and I want to see what happens when the health care reform kicks in.”

THE PLAN Ann Gish offers preferred provider organization coverage,polo,borse gucci prezzi Why Is It So Hard to Find Good, a form of managed care that favors doctors and hospitals that are in-network. One aspect of the plan that galls Ms. Gish is that doctors must seek permission from the insurer before prescribing some treatments. However, Ms. Gish said, the plan is “non-gated,” meaning that employees don’t need permission from their primary doctor to see a specialist.

THE INSURER Currently,polo femme,louis vuitton borse, it’s Aetna; before that,gucci, it was Oxford. “We’ve changed either every year or every two years,ralph lauren pas cher,” Ms. Gish said, “because they take away the policy that you have,polo lacoste,polo femme, and they give you a new one that’s more money and generally fewer benefits.” In recent years, premiums have bounced around, Ms. Gish said: $422 in 2009, $479 in 2010,polo Thomson Reuters, back down to $443 last year,House Vote Northern Whites, and now back up again. Meanwhile, she said, this year employees face slightly higher co-payments and much steeper deductibles.

THE HEADACHE Pounding and relentless. Even simple tasks, she said, like adding or removing employees from the rolls,polo homme, are complicated: “My husband, who does all of the C.F.O. stuff, has spent hours and hours and hours on this. And I spend a couple days a year on it. And I’m not stupid. I’ve started a successful business.”

WHAT DIFFERENCE THE OVERHAUL HAS MADE SO FAR None. She looked into the available to small businesses under the law but found that the average wages her company pays exceed the law’s $50,000 threshold for the credit.

WHAT SHE WANTS FROM REFORM Simplification. Health insurance, Ms. Gish said,borse gucci prezzi, “should be put together in a way that any idiot could understand.” Though Ms. Gish has occasionally read press accounts of how the Affordable Care Act will change insurance, she concedes that she still does not know what to expect. “I figure when 2014? comes, I’ll have to learn it,” she said. “But since I feel pretty powerless about doing anything, and since it could all change before then, what’s the point in trying to sink your teeth into it now?”

Do you have any thoughts on Ms. Gish’s situation? What percentage of employee premiums does your company pay?

If you want to be scared, truly terrified, listen to Mark J. Grant. He might be right.

For the last two years, Mr. Grant, a managing director based in Florida at a regional investment bank, has been predicting the bankruptcy of Greece and a cascade of chaos across the global economy, attracting quite a following on Wall Street in the process.

“Greece will be forced to return to the drachma and devalue, and the default will cause bank runs and money flowing into Germany and the United States as the only viable safe haven bets,” he declared the day before Sunday’s Greek elections,borse gucci prezzi,louis vuitton Energy Security, irrespective of which party would win. “Greece will default because there is no other choice regardless of anyone’s politics.”

He then walked through the falling dominoes: “It will hit the (), the banks on the other side of the derivatives contracts, all of the Greek banks who are really in default at present and being carried by Europe as well as the nation, and the Greek default will spread the infection in many places that we cannot imagine because so much is hidden and tucked away in the European financial system.”

Welcome to Doomsday, brought to you by Mr. Grant. He says he doesn’t think of it as such; he calls it “reality.” He told me on Monday, almost hopelessly, “There’s only so much money to go around.”

In a Jan. 13, 2010, report,outlet gucci louis vuitton sito ufficiale How Citigroup CEO, Mr. Grant forecast that Greece would default on its government debts, one of the first to publish such a prognostication.

Mr. Grant could be the Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom) of the European crisis. Mr. Roubini, the economist,ralph lauren pas cher Trail Mix - NYTimes.com, said the subprime-debt sky was falling for a long time before it fell. Few people listened, in part,ralph lauren pas cher ralph lauren pas cher Investment MacroScope, because nobody had ever heard of him. Then, of course,polo homme, the sky fell. Now everybody has heard of him. Time will tell, but soon everybody could know Mr. Grant.

The January 2010 report,polo homme, written two years before Greece did indeed default,polo ralph lauren pas cher,polo ralph lauren, has made him the go-to forecaster of Europe’s collapse for some of the world’s largest investors. Nicknamed the Wizard, Mr. Grant,polo homme, who works for Southwest Securities, sends out a daily report, often frightening in its detail and matter-of-factness,polo femme, by e-mail to a who’s who of the world’s biggest institutions,polo ralph lauren pas cher, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds. Subscribers like , a founder of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, pay thousands of dollars a year to receive Mr. Grant’s views in their in-boxes.

Never one to sugarcoat his views, his success is partly a function of his plain-spoken way of making complex ideas simple.

“There is only one way out of this mess and that is if Europe keeps handing Greece money like one does to some aged aunt that cannot support herself, but that is a family decision,borse chanel,” he wrote. But, he argues,ralph lauren pas cher,ralph lauren, “Greece requires 16 other family members to support her jointly and the politics in many of these nations, including Germany, is making it difficult for the charade to continue.”

His view of European officials’ effort to “fire-wall” the problem countries is equally simple: “This whole subject is a ruse in my opinion. Think of horses in a corral. The rancher keeps trying to build a higher and higher fence around his horses but for what purpose? For the rancher it is to keep the wolves out.”

Mr. Grant, who loves to mix metaphors, takes his rancher metaphor further: “The real problem is that the horses are sick, infected and that the disease of fiscal mismanagement has spread to virtually every horse in the corral except one and do not expect that one,polo lacoste pas cher The Get Louis Vuitton, Germany, to remain disease-free much longer.”

Layering on another metaphor, he adds: “You can call cancer a cold if you like but it changes nothing; not one thing.”

Sadly, Mr. Grant is not predicting the default of just Greece,borse gucci, he’s already on to Spain (he reached that conclusion before many others,ralph lauren, too).

“The country cannot afford to pay off their regional debt,polo femme,polo femme, their bank debt,” he wrote on Monday,ralph lauren, “and various schemes to avoid the Men in Black from taking over will not work nor will the pleas for ‘more Europe’ as the words mouthed by Germany are meant for placation only and will not find implementation in any kind of timeline that will make any difference.”

He has convinced himself that Germany,ralph lauren home, the only country in a position to help,ralph lauren, will not come to the rescue. “You can bank on one thing if nothing else; the Germans will not allow their cost of funding to rise or their standard of living to decline to help the nations that have gotten themselves in trouble. You can count on this!” he wrote.

As we were talking on Monday, he said he wanted to make clear that he did not believe Armageddon was upon us. And it’s not as if Mr. Grant is wishing this to happen,polo ralph lauren pas cher, despite his boat in Fort Lauderdale, named “Wishes Granted.”

“I don’t think the world is going to hell,” he said. “It’s very negative. What’s going on is serious. It will have a whole slew of negative consequences.” But he insisted, “I don’t think it’s going to get to the 1930s.”

More likely, he said, we are headed for a bad recession with lots “of shocks to the system.” He says this will likely happen in the next four months unless “there is debt forgiveness or Europe keeps handing them money like they are a ward of the state.”

“Or,polo lacoste pas cher Future Shock Bryan Singer Di,ralph lauren femme,” he warned, “it could come sooner.”